When using the camera, set the focus height first, then click Update Overlay, never the other way around - the top of the material has to be at the same height as the material when you did the camera alignment process.
The only thing that affects camera alignment is movement of the camera. In your case, the alignment appears to only be off in the vertical direction, which would be along the hinge line, meaning your lid isn’t opening to the same place every time. Even a single degree of difference can mean a huge amount off for the camera. If you can put some kind of hard stop in place, or some other way to know that the lid is stopping in the same (exact) place every time, that will help.